UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.