Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: ‘Very Soft’ Ground Hampers Japanese Hopes

The first afternoon of this current Arc meeting took place in bright sunshine on the weekend, but the chunks of grass being thrown up in the Group One Prix du Cadran were a sign of the heavy rain that had come down since Friday night, altering the shape and narrative of the upcoming Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

“Very soft and it’s going to take a lot of getting,” was the assessment of Dylan Browne McMonagle after his victory on Tennessee Stud in the opening Prix Chaudenay, a opinion that was shared by Tom Marquand, the victorious jockey aboard the trainer’s his horse.

“It’s quite soft but not heavy,” he said. “I think it would be an unfairness to call it deep because they’ve done a excellent job of having us on the nicest part of the track, and tomorrow it will open out again to renew it, but it’s challenging.”

For good or ill, the prospects of all seventeen runners have been affected by the abrupt worsening of the track, but the biggest losers in the weather lottery have been the 3 entrants from the Asian nation, bidding to succeed where 33 fellow countrymen have fallen short over the past 56 years.

Only a seven days ago, one contender, another runner and a third horse were all priced up between 8-1 and sixteen-to-one, the good-to-soft ground had survived well beyond its usual September cut-off point at Longchamp and there was even talk of Byzantine Dream edging towards the peak of the market as bettors latched on to the selection of the jockey to ride.

Each of the horses were also heading into the Arc following a win in a established trial, an unprecedented level of strength in depth for a Japanese bid. But the recent allotment for stalls left both the hopeful and Croix Du Nord stuck in outside gates, the precipitation has increased the difficulty of their mission and all three are now offered at fourteen-to-one or higher.

This does not, of course, mean that they cannot win, but each will start with their opportunity significantly diminished. Japan’s racing is run almost solely on fast surfaces or quicker, so the studs and broodmares in its breeding programme are speed-oriented thoroughbreds. It typically demands a career-best performance to win an the race, and the trio are unlikely to achieve their very best form on the rain-softened ground or, in the instance of Byzantine Dream and another, from a outside stall.

The advantage has tipped appreciably towards the Europeans, and runners from the host nation, Ireland and Britain now occupy the top six slots in the betting for what is an unusually open edition of the European premier race.

André Fabre is aiming for a ninth win in the Arc and will like his prospects with Sosie, a nine-to-one choice, and Cualificar, at around 12-1.

Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk, unbeaten in four starts this season including the Oaks and the Curragh classic, is a narrow favourite from the French Group One victor, the filly, who was a length and a bit behind the third in second a year ago.

Sosie, the beaten choice when fourth-placed last year, is a nine-to-one option to give André Fabre a record-extending ninth Arc, while another contender, a narrow second to Croix Du Nord over a mile and a quarter at Longchamp in their prep last month, is a 12-1 prospect with Kalapana, the King George runner-up, and another trained entry, Cualificar.

All six have plenty to support their case, but the odd doubt about their chance too. Minnie Hauk has a tricky draw next to the inside in stall one, which has not produced the Arc winner since two thousand eight, while Aventure took a Vermeille in which the favourite, Whirl, obviously failed to run anywhere close to form. Kalapana, meanwhile, was a long way below of her Ascot performance in her Arc warm-up at Kempton recently, and Sosie has not been obviously improved as a older horse.

That leaves one option and another as appealing options, not only because they are also the most likely runners to take a big improvement on the occasion that matters most.

The colt, who was likely unlucky not to defeat Croix Du Nord last time out, has just 6 starts in the book and while he is moving up to a 12 furlongs for the debut, he is a product of the the owner’s breeding operation and almost certain to benefit from the additional two furlongs.

Cualificar (the race time), though, is nearly just as untested at the distance, having made his first start at the complete Arc distance just recently when he was successful in the the trial. His trainer’s history in the race speaks for itself – he has already won two times as many wins as every other handler in its 105-year existence – and he has planned a strategic route towards Longchamp with his latest young contender.

He was a easy victor of the the prep – the launch-pad for Fabre’s 6 prior young Arc winners – and while he has something to make up with the favorite and the filly on ratings, looks nearly sure to progress markedly on that form on Sunday.

The jockey will also have plenty of options from an ideal draw in stall eight and at around twelve-to-one with British bookmakers, Cualificar is an strong bet to give the nation’s most successful handler one more victory in his home premier race.