MAGA Voters Backing Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Unexpected Outcomes from NYC’s Mayoral Race

Just 48 hours prior to the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was some opposition. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.