Donald Trump's Ukraine Peace Initiative Constitutes a Gift to Russia's Leader

At first, Trump seemed to embrace a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "significant consequences" during the summer if Putin carried on hindering truce talks, Trump eventually enacted considerable sanctions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his latest 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, which was created by US and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or European participation, the former president has seemingly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's plan would essentially benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in danger. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", much of the initiative effectively compromise that same independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his corporate background, the former president seems to consider the war as a basic border issue, like ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's invasion is not simply about controlling a destroyed swath of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it no longer functions as an appealing example for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's deepening autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in position the already divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been failed to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically compromised.

The area is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital if he eventually choose to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would enable renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's initiative places no equivalent limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. However, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has broken comparable accords in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a return of seized areas in the Donbas to the government – why should we have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. While the initiative warns of a "strong joint armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars vary from vague to alarming. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Putin from restoring his reduced forces, restocking, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate supplementary accord according to sources would grant the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. But different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not